- Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?51¢
- Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?50¢
- Will Huang Kuo-chang win the next New Taipei Mayor election?<1¢
Recent polling shows DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui gaining ground on KMT/TPP-backed Lee Shu-chuan in New Taipei, with one survey placing her 13 points ahead after she improved among undecided voters and in traditionally KMT districts. The race centers on the open seat of term-limited incumbent Hou You-yi, with Lee relying on blue-white alliance coordination and district-by-district campaigning while Su emphasizes infrastructure, housing renewal, and local service continuity. With the November 28 vote weeks away, minor independent Su Hui-huang registers negligible support, and Huang Kuo-chang remains sidelined after the earlier primary. Trader pricing near 50 percent for the top two reflects uncertainty over whether Su’s momentum or Lee’s organizational edge will prevail in this high-stakes local contest.
Rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).