- Will Huang Kuo-chang win the next New Taipei Mayor election?<1¢
- Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?21¢
- Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?80¢
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Lee Shu-chuan holds an 80% implied probability in the New Taipei mayoral race due to the KMT-TPP alliance that consolidated opposition support behind him after he prevailed in their April 2026 joint primary, prompting Huang Kuo-chang to suspend his own bid and pledge coordination. This arrangement avoids a split that could favor the DPP nominee, Su Chiao-hui, in the November 28, 2026, contest for the open seat held by term-limited incumbent Hou Yu-ih. Recent polling, including an Era survey from late August showing Su ahead by 5.6 points, has not shifted the market consensus, as traders appear to weigh the unified opposition bloc and Lee's administrative experience more heavily than individual survey fluctuations ahead of candidate registration.