- Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?7¢
- Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?93¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Chris Pappas holds a commanding lead in the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary as the four-term U.S. representative with extensive establishment backing, superior fundraising exceeding $13 million, and broad support among moderates and older voters. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows him ahead of challenger Karishma Manzur 47% to 34% among likely primary voters, narrowing from earlier double-digit margins but still reflecting his structural advantages ahead of the September 8 contest to succeed retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Manzur, a first-time candidate emphasizing progressive priorities, has gained traction through grassroots organizing among younger and socialist-leaning voters. Trader consensus at 92.7% for Pappas could shift if undecided voters break heavily for Manzur or if turnout patterns favor her base in the final days.