- Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?64¢64%
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?36¢36%
Incumbent Republican Richard Hudson holds a strong position in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean following mid-decade redistricting and his long tenure since 2013. Recent polling averages show Hudson ahead by roughly six points, with one late-October survey indicating 46% to challenger Richard Ojeda’s 42%. Hudson’s fundraising advantage and role as NRCC chairman provide organizational edges, while Ojeda, a retired Army major and former West Virginia state senator, emphasizes veterans’ issues and cost-of-living concerns in a race rated likely or solid Republican by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus at current levels aligns with these structural and polling factors, though the contest remains within typical polling margins. Early voting has begun, with the outcome hinging on turnout in this battleground seat.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).