- Will Geraldine Ponce Méndez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?9¢
- Will Héctor Santana García win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?1¢
- Will Pavel Jarero Velázquez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢
- Will María Elizabeth López Blanco win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?17¢
- Will Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?2¢
- Will Gustavo Ayón Aguirre win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Ignacio Flores Medina win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Luis Zamora Carrillo win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Julieta Mejía Ibáñez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Gloria Núñez Sánchez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Citlalli Rubí Huerta win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Morena maintains a commanding lead in statewide voter preference surveys for the June 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial election, with support often exceeding 50 percent, far ahead of Movimiento Ciudadano, PAN, and PRI. This structural advantage concentrates trader attention on the party's internal nomination process, where recent June–July 2026 polls show Héctor Javier Santana García ahead of Geraldine Ponce Méndez and Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez among aspirants. The nomination remains unresolved, sustaining uncertainty reflected in the market's spread across multiple names. Key factors keeping probabilities compressed include high undecided shares in internal surveys, limited differentiation on policy, and the absence of decisive endorsements or scandals. A clear Morena nominee announcement, shifts in party identification, or emerging general-election matchups could widen gaps, while late polling volatility or coalition negotiations might narrow them further.