- Will Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?73¢73%
- Will Luis Zamora Carrillo win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?10¢10%
- Will Héctor Santana García win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?5¢5%
- Will Geraldine Ponce Méndez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?5¢5%
- Will Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?4¢4%
- Will Pavel Jarero Velázquez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?4¢4%
- Will Manuel Cota Jiménez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?1¢1%
- Will Ivonne Sabrina Díaz win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?1¢1%
- Will Citlalli Rubí Huerta win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Gustavo Ayón Aguirre win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Gloria Núñez Sánchez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Julieta Mejía Ibáñez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?<1¢<1%
Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez leads the Nayarit gubernatorial market at 75.3% after Morena designated her state coordinator for the 2027 election in late September 2026, applying gender-parity criteria following internal surveys. She formalized her switch from the PVEM to Morena in October and secured early polling leads, including 46.7% in a mid-October Mitofsky survey as the Morena-PT-PVEM option. Other listed aspirants, including Héctor Santana García, Geraldine Ponce Méndez, Pavel Jarero Velázquez, and lower-probability names such as Manuel Cota Jiménez or Ivideliza Reyes Hernández, trail due to the party’s consolidation around her profile ahead of the June 2027 vote. Trader pricing reflects this party-structure advantage and limited recent shifts in the officialist coalition.
Rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.