- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be less than 350,000?5¢5%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 350,000 and 400,000?2¢2%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 400,000 and 450,000?6¢6%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 450,000 and 500,000?32¢32%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 500,000 and 550,000?37¢37%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 550,000 and 600,000?6¢6%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be 600,000 or more?6¢6%
With the November 3 election one week away, trader consensus around 450,000–550,000 total votes reflects early voting data of roughly 180,000 ballots cast alongside historical midterm patterns in a low-population state. An open Senate seat featuring Republican Kurt Alme, independent Seth Bodnar, and Democrat Alani Bankhead creates uncertainty over final participation, as vote splitting among non-Republican voters may dampen overall turnout while Republican base mobilization remains a key variable. Recent polls showing Alme ahead have not produced clear enthusiasm gaps that would shift expectations sharply higher or lower, leaving the market balanced between typical Montana midterm levels and modest increases from early-vote momentum.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.