- Will the Republican Party win the MN-02 House seat?7¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?93¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
The open seat in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, created by incumbent Democrat Angie Craig's decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, underpins the strong Democratic advantage in the November 2026 general election. Matt Little secured the DFL nomination after the August primary, facing Republican Eric Pratt in a district rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters and holding a modest D+2 to D+3 partisan lean from recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the seat's suburban Twin Cities profile, historical Democratic performance margins, and absence of major shifts favoring the GOP challenger since primaries concluded. A significant national Republican wave, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen campaign developments could narrow the gap before Election Day.