- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?48¢
- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?36¢
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?14¢
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?11¢
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?1¢
- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?<1¢
Morena holds a modest lead in trader pricing for the Michoacán Congress election at 53 percent, consistent with its current 16-seat plurality in the 40-member LXXVI Legislature and repeated polling leads for 2027 state races. Recent surveys from Rubrum and Enkoll place the party at 33–39 percent support, well ahead of PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano, reflecting sustained voter identification and organizational strength in the state. Alliances with PT and PVEM further bolster its position for seat maximization under Mexico’s mixed-member system. The tight spread among multiple opposition options at or near 50 percent signals fragmented challenger support and uncertainty over how independent candidacies or turnout shifts could alter proportional representation outcomes in the June 2027 vote. Scheduled internal party processes and any late candidate alignments remain key variables that could widen or narrow these probabilities before election day.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 40 members of the Congress of the State of Michoacán are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Michoacán as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral de Michoacán. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral de Michoacán, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral de Michoacán (https://www.iem.org.mx/).