- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be less than 4,200,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,200,000 and 4,400,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,400,000 and 4,600,000?5¢5%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000?31¢31%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,800,000 and 5,000,000?14¢14%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 5,000,000 and 5,200,000?16¢16%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 5,200,000 and 5,400,000?10¢10%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 5,400,000 and 5,600,000?6¢6%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be 5,600,000 or more?13¢13%
The tight contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, following Gary Peters’ retirement, drives trader focus on turnout near 4.6-5 million ballots. A competitive Democratic primary that exceeded 2.5 million votes established a baseline for elevated engagement, while recent polling averages show margins of 1-3 points that energize both bases and independents. Mail ballots reached 905,000 by late October, representing about 20% of projected totals, with in-person early voting underway. Michigan’s established midterm participation patterns, expanded absentee and early voting access, and economic issues such as auto tariffs support moderate-to-high participation without evident catalysts for record highs or lows. Final campaign events and get-out-the-vote efforts in the coming days could still shift totals within the clustered probability bands.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.