- Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?27¢
- Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?45¢
- Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?28¢
- Will BSW win at least 7% of all valid second votes?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polls ahead of the September 20 election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern place BSW support at 4 percent across multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA, reflecting a downward trend from earlier readings near 5-6 percent. Internal party turbulence, including leadership resignations and organizational strains in the state branch, has weighed on momentum. BSW's narrow threshold clearance in the recent Saxony-Anhalt vote provided a modest signal of viability, yet consistent polling shows it trailing the 5 percent hurdle amid competition for left-leaning and protest voters. Trader consensus around 3-5 percent aligns with these stable late-campaign figures and the limited time for shifts before election day.