- Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) <10.5%?3¢
- Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 10.5% to 11.5%?32¢
- Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?40¢
- Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 12.5% to 13.5%?10¢
- Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 13.5%+?9¢
Mastercard’s Q3 cross-border volume growth on a local currency basis trades with the tightest implied probabilities clustered around 11.5–12.5 percent, reflecting sustained but moderating momentum from Q2’s 12 percent print. Key drivers include ongoing expansion in both travel-related and card-not-present non-travel spending, supported by global consumer and business activity outside the U.S., where switched volume growth has held near 12 percent. Recent company updates through late July showed a sequential dip to 11 percent month-to-date, amid stable intra-Europe trends and resilient e-commerce flows, while stablecoin infrastructure initiatives and regional partnerships signal longer-term tailwinds without immediate Q3 impact. Q3 earnings later this month will provide the resolution catalyst, with traders weighting the balance between resilient underlying spend and any further moderation from prior-quarter highs.
Rules
This market will resolve according to Mastercard's cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.