- KOSPI all-time high before 2028?25¢25%
The 75.5% probability assigned to “No” on a new KOSPI all-time high before 2028 reflects the index’s steep correction from its June 2026 peak of 9,114.55 to levels near 5,400 in early November. Sharp foreign outflows, concentrated in semiconductor names, followed U.S. midterm results that raised prospects for tighter scrutiny of AI data-center expansion and capex. Analysts have trimmed 2027 targets to the 7,000–8,000 range amid slower expected EPS growth, a firmer won, and lingering uncertainty over global monetary policy. Reaching a fresh record within roughly 14 months would require a sustained rally exceeding 65% from current prices, a threshold markets view as improbable given the recent volatility and external headwinds.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) records an intraday or close value above 9,385.59 — its official all-time intraday high as published by the Korea Exchange, set on June 19, 2026 — at any point between the creation of this market and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM KST. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only index values recorded during the regular trading session of the Korea Exchange will be considered. Values implied by futures, ETFs, options, or other derivative instruments will not qualify. Index values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. The primary resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.