- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?43¢43%
- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?40¢40%
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?19¢19%
- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?7¢7%
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?2¢2%
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?1¢1%
MC holds a narrow lead in trader pricing for the Jalisco Congress election winner at 52 percent, with numerous parties clustered near 50 percent and Morena, PVEM, PT, PAN, and PRI trailing further behind. This tight distribution reflects a fragmented field in which no single contender commands a decisive edge, consistent with Jalisco’s multi-party legislative environment and recent patterns of coalition negotiations over budget, water infrastructure, and committee leadership. Upcoming candidate selections, local polling shifts, and state-level policy announcements on financing or governance could widen gaps by clarifying voter alignments ahead of the resolution date. Traders continue to price outcomes based on these evolving institutional and electoral signals.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 38 members of the Congress of the State of Jalisco are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Jalisco as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Jalisco. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Jalisco, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Jalisco and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Jalisco (https://www.iepcjalisco.org.mx/).