- Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?69¢
Recent polling averages place Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc—anchored by Likud and including Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism-Zehut—slightly ahead of the opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, with the pro-Netanyahu camp at roughly 51-55 Knesset seats versus 49-54 for rivals in surveys from the past two weeks. Neither side reaches the 61-seat majority threshold, yet the consistent narrow lead for the incumbent bloc, combined with surplus-vote agreements and small right-wing parties clearing or missing the 3.25% threshold, underpins traders’ 69% consensus on Bibi’s side winning more seats. The October 27 election remains fluid, with turnout among returning voters and final threshold outcomes able to shift the narrow gap.
Rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Bibi” (Netanyahu bloc) if Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win a greater combined total of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election than The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. This market will resolve to “Opp.” (opposition bloc) if The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win a greater combined total of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election than Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Seats won by any party not named above will not count toward either bloc. If both blocs win the same combined number of seats, this market will resolve to the bloc whose named parties received the greater combined total of valid votes, counting only the votes of named parties that pass the electoral threshold. If the blocs remain tied, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).