- Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?43¢
- Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?27¢
- Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?18¢
- Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.75-4.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?17¢
- Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 4.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?19¢
Recent polls place the Reservists–New Economic Party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, near or just above Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 vote, with multiple surveys from Maariv, Channel 12, and Channel 14 projecting four Knesset seats while others show it falling short. Volatility in small-party polling, competition from lists such as Amcha Yisrael, and uncertainty over turnout and surplus-vote pacts explain why traders assign the highest probabilities to vote shares below or only marginally above 3.25%. The party’s platform emphasizing reservist support and economic measures has stabilized support in some tracking, yet bloc calculations remain sensitive to whether it clears the bar.
Rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Reservists – New Economic Party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Reservists – New Economic Party merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).