- Will Tesla deliver less than 400000 vehicles in Q4 20263¢3%
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q4 202626¢26%
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 202617¢17%
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 202616¢16%
- Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 20268¢8%
- Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q4 202616¢16%
- Will Tesla deliver between 525000 and 550000 vehicles in Q4 2026<1¢<1%
- Will Tesla deliver between 550000 and 575000 vehicles in Q4 20262¢2%
- Will Tesla deliver 575000 or more vehicles in Q4 20264¢4%
Recent Q3 2026 deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, which exceeded analyst consensus despite a modest year-over-year dip, combined with ongoing battery-pack constraints and steady Model 3/Y output, have left trader sentiment evenly split across the 425k–525k range on Polymarket. Production at Giga Texas and Shanghai continues near capacity, while Cybertruck and other models add limited incremental volume amid softening U.S. demand after the federal EV tax credit expiration. Key swing factors include seasonal order patterns, potential FSD-driven demand lift, and any late-quarter inventory adjustments. Resolution hinges on January 2027 reporting, with no major new model launches expected before year-end to shift the distribution materially.
Rules
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.