- Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?<1¢
- Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?9¢
- Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?73¢
- Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?2¢
- Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?5¢
- Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?4¢
SpaceX has completed roughly 120 orbital launches through mid-October 2026, driven primarily by a sustained Falcon 9 cadence of Starlink deployments alongside crew, cargo, and national security missions from Florida and California pads. This operational tempo, supported by rapid booster reuse and multiple active pads, positions the 140-159 range as the market consensus. Starship test flights remain limited, with only a handful expected by year-end as the vehicle transitions between blocks. Upcoming milestones include continued Starlink batches and potential Starship Flights 15-16, though regulatory reviews for higher Starship rates will not materially affect 2026 totals. Trader sentiment reflects the proven Falcon reliability and historical launch patterns rather than speculative Starship scaling.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.