- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?19¢
- Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?59¢
- Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?28¢
- Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?11¢
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?7¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Persistent security risks from the ongoing Iran conflict, including IRGC enforcement of northern corridor rules, recent projectile strikes on tankers, and war-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages. Recent data show only 3–5 visible commodity vessels moving on peak days in late August, with many operators favoring dark transits or rerouting entirely, positioning the 20–39 weekly outcome as the market consensus. Elevated Brent crude at $88 reflects these supply constraints, while upcoming diplomatic signals or further incidents could influence whether traffic edges toward the 40–59 range.