- Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?34¢
- Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?31¢
- Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?31¢
- Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?28¢
- Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?25¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Amzan and the fatal August 11 incident on the Tihamah, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective diversions, compressing tanker volumes through Bab el-Mandeb while container and bulker flows show modest resilience. MarineTraffic and Kpler data indicate weekly transits stabilizing near 223–269 in mid-August amid partial Suez rerouting by carriers such as Maersk and MSC, yet still well below pre-2024 peaks. With outcomes clustered tightly between 170–229, trader consensus embeds uncertainty over last-minute route shifts and dark-transit reporting ahead of the August 31–September 6 window, where further enforcement of the Saudi blockade or any de-escalation could swing volumes across the 190–210 midpoint.