- Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?93¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 35 and 44 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?3¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 45 and 54 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?3¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 55 and 64 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 65 and 74 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?3¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 75 and 84 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
- Will New People (NL) win 85 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
The tightly managed character of Russian State Duma elections, with United Russia retaining dominant administrative resources and single-member district advantages, underpins trader expectations that New People will secure only modest gains from its current 15–16 seats. Recent party conventions approved candidate lists and regional groupings aimed at expanding representation, while polls show support fluctuating between roughly 6–13 percent depending on the survey, reflecting its positioning as an in-system alternative amid limited protest options. Kremlin oversight of media access, candidate registration, and vote tabulation has historically capped systemic opposition growth. A substantial upward revision would require either a deliberate shift in presidential administration strategy or an unanticipated surge in coordinated voter turnout within the brief window before the September vote.