- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?30¢30%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?19¢19%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?16¢16%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?9¢9%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?5¢5%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?3¢3%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?3¢3%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?8¢8%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?3¢3%
The 5-year Treasury yield stands near 4.94% as of October 21, 2026, after climbing from sub-4.5% levels earlier in the year amid Federal Reserve tightening. Recent FOMC actions, including the September 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% fed funds target and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh, have elevated market-implied rate paths and real yields, reinforced by resilient growth, elevated fiscal deficits above 6% of GDP, and a higher term premium. Energy-driven inflation prints and competition for capital from AI-related borrowing further support this repricing. Traders are monitoring the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, Q3 GDP release on October 29, and subsequent CPI and employment data for signs of whether the policy stance eases enough to allow meaningful downside in the 5-year yield before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).