- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?<1¢
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?35¢
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?65¢
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The Bank of Russia’s September 11 meeting is viewed by traders as an intermediate gathering unlikely to produce a policy shift from the current 14% key rate, reflecting the central bank’s emphasis on one-off factors behind recent price acceleration, such as fuel supply disruptions, alongside stable underlying inflation measures near 4–5% annualized. Limited incoming data since the July 25 basis point cut, combined with fiscal uncertainties ahead of budget parameters expected in October, supports a pause to assess inflation expectations and domestic risks before further easing. A modest probability of reduction aligns with the ongoing gradual cycle amid moderate economic growth, while any hike remains remote absent sustained second-round effects. This pricing captures the wisdom of crowds balancing pro-inflationary fiscal impulses against disinflationary trends.