- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?3¢
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?32¢
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?64¢
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent inflation data showing acceleration toward 6.3% by September, combined with elevated inflation expectations and pro-inflationary risks from higher fuel prices and expansionary fiscal policy, have led traders to price a pause as the most likely outcome at the Bank of Russia’s September 11 meeting. The central bank’s updated baseline forecast projects an average key rate of 14.5–14.6% for 2026 after the July reduction to 14%, signaling limited room for further easing amid budget deficit pressures and one-off price factors. Analyst surveys reflect this caution, with most expecting the rate to hold steady while a minority see scope for a modest 25 basis point cut if conditions stabilize. An increase remains remote given the ongoing disinflation trajectory from prior tightening.