- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.51% in September?16¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.56% in September?20¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in September?41¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in September?50¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?61¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.61% in September?25¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September?40¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?74¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% in September?12¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
As of early September 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.78%, close to its highest levels since early 2025. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with geopolitical tensions that have lifted oil prices, has kept monetary policy expectations hawkish under Chair Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing little chance of near-term rate cuts and some probability of hikes. Heavy Treasury issuance to finance large fiscal deficits, alongside robust corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, has elevated term premiums and added supply pressure that supports higher long-term yields. Recent data show the yield rising from around 4.6% in late August amid these dynamics. Key upcoming catalysts include September inflation and labor-market releases, plus any FOMC communications that could shift rate-path expectations and influence intraday or weekly lows.