- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 14?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Recent forecast models from multiple meteorological services project a daytime high of 28–29°C in Tel Aviv on October 14 under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds of 10–15 km/h and negligible precipitation risk. This autumnal pattern aligns with typical mid-October conditions for the coastal plain, where daytime warming peaks in the afternoon before cooling overnight. Model consensus shows limited spread, with only minor variations possible from cloud timing or localized wind shifts that could cap the maximum at 28°C or nudge it to 30°C. Trader sentiment heavily favors 29°C as the resolution threshold because official observations and updated runs through midday confirm temperatures tracking directly toward this level, with low historical deviation from similar synoptic setups.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.