- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Strong model consensus and real-time observations from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international numerical weather prediction runs support a 24°C daytime maximum in Shanghai on October 14. Northeast winds near 10 km/h, partly cloudy to overcast conditions, and typical autumn transitional patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region align with this outcome, matching climatological expectations for mid-October highs near 23–24°C. Market-implied odds reflect this convergence of forecast data. Minor deviations could arise from localized station microclimates, revised hourly observations, or unexpected afternoon clearing that alters peak readings by 1°C, though current guidance shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.