- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on October 14?93¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 14?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and numerical models indicate a daytime high of 17–18°C for Toronto on October 14 under mostly cloudy skies with light northwest winds and a modest shower chance, aligning with the market’s strong 92.5% implied probability for exactly 18°C. This positioning reflects consistent model runs and observed morning temperatures near 14°C that are tracking seasonal norms without significant warm or cold advection. Historical October averages near 15°C provide context, yet current steering patterns and cloud cover limit upward spikes. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day surge above 19°C from clearing skies or model error, though afternoon data releases and official station readings will determine resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.