- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Recent forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and supporting model consensus indicate Taipei's daytime high on October 14 reached or will reach exactly 30°C amid mostly cloudy skies, easterly flow around 10-15 km/h, and minimal precipitation. This aligns with late-autumn climatology for the region, where urban heat island effects and subsidence patterns commonly support peaks in the upper 20s to low 30s before cooler northeasterly surges arrive. Trader consensus at 100% on 30°C reflects real-time observational data and low uncertainty near market close. A realistic challenge would require revised station readings below threshold from prolonged cloud cover or localized cooling, though current conditions make such shifts unlikely.
Rules
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.