- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on October 14?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 14?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 14?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 14?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on October 14?32¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on October 14?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on October 14?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C or higher on October 14?1¢
Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate Sao Paulo's afternoon high on October 14 will likely peak near 28–29°C under scattered thunderstorms, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 36.5% for 29°C and 32% for 28°C. Thunderstorm development, driven by daytime heating and moisture, introduces uncertainty through cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can suppress maxima or allow brief spikes before rain arrives. October climatology shows average highs around 25°C, so current conditions reflect seasonal warming offset by convective activity. Traders weigh model consensus against timing of any showers, with resolution hinging on official observations through late afternoon.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.