- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 14?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 14?42¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on October 14?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 14?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Traders see nearly even odds between 20°C and 21°C for Paris’s October 14 high because official forecasts and real-time observations cluster tightly around that range under a strong anticyclone. Light southerly winds, dissipating morning fog, and mostly clear to partly cloudy afternoon skies allow modest solar heating, with models showing peak readings near 20–21°C depending on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical October averages near 17–18°C provide context, but today’s stable high-pressure pattern supports the warmer outcome. Minor forecast revisions from agencies such as Météo-France or slight changes in observed insolation could easily shift the final recorded maximum between these two thresholds before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.