- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on October 14?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on October 14?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on October 14?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on October 14?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on October 14?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on October 14?<1¢
Trader consensus centers on an 80°F peak for New York City on October 14, with the 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins nearly tied amid NWS forecasts of 79–81°F. Unseasonably warm southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front supports daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, tempered by west winds of 6–13 mph, mostly sunny skies, and only a slight shower chance. Subtle differences in model guidance, station siting (Central Park versus coastal airports), and the precise timing of any boundary-layer mixing or thin cloud cover create the narrow spread between these leading outcomes. Historical October 14 records near 82–84°F provide context but are unlikely to be challenged given the frontal approach and seasonal cooling trend. Real-time observations and the final NWS daily summary will resolve the market.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.