- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on October 14?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on October 14?82¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on October 14?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Forecast models from sources like GFS and observational data position 18°C as the leading outcome for Munich’s daily maximum on October 14, with trader-implied odds reflecting mild autumn conditions. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies after light morning showers, westerly winds around 7–10 km/h, and afternoon temperatures climbing toward 16–17°C under a stable high-pressure regime. Ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal warming potential given moderate humidity and cloud cover, keeping the peak firmly in the 17–18°C range rather than higher. Historical October averages for the region hover near 14–16°C, so today’s mild air mass represents a modest positive anomaly. Resolution hinges on the official recorded high, with any late-day clearing or measurement variance able to shift the final value by 1°C. No major model updates are expected before evening.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.