- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Official IMD observations recorded a 33.6°C high at Lucknow airport on October 13, with forecasts for October 14 consistently projecting a maximum near 33–34°C under mainly clear skies and light winds. Multiple model runs and agency guidance align on this range, producing the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for exactly 33°C. Historical October climatology for the region supports daytime peaks in the low-to-mid 30s when dry conditions prevail. Only a late surge in cloud cover, unforecasted showers, or a sharp shift in steering winds could push the observed high outside 32–34°C and alter resolution. Updated IMD bulletins and real-time station readings remain the key near-term catalysts for any reassessment.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.