- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Trader consensus heavily favors a 37°C high in Karachi on October 14 due to consistent Pakistan Meteorological Department and numerical model guidance projecting a peak in the 36–38°C range under persistent hot, dry, and mostly clear conditions. Recent observations, including a 39°C reading the prior day, reflect above-normal October temperatures driven by regional subsidence and westerly flow, with low humidity and minimal cloud cover supporting efficient daytime heating. Official forecasts explicitly cite 36–38°C as the expected maximum, aligning with climatological baselines for mid-October. A shift in steering winds introducing unexpected moisture or a model underestimation of boundary-layer mixing could push readings to 38°C or drop them below 36°C, though current observational trends and ensemble agreement make such deviations unlikely before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.