- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 14?86¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 14?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 14?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on October 14?<1¢
Northeast winds and persistent cloud cover are anchoring trader expectations for a Chicago high temperature in the 66-67°F range on October 14. Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a peak near 63°F under mostly cloudy skies with only a slight shower chance, yet early-morning readings near 66°F and localized variability have shifted the market-implied probability heavily toward the upper end of the low-60s envelope. Cooler northeasterly flow off Lake Michigan is suppressing further warming compared with recent days, while climatological normals for mid-October sit around 64°F. With resolution dependent on the official daily maximum from primary reporting stations, traders are weighting the latest forecast updates and any afternoon model adjustments that could push readings marginally higher or confirm the cooler track.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.