- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Trader consensus on a 25°C high for Chengdu on October 14, 2026, reflects real-time meteorological observations and model consensus from regional monitoring networks. Current conditions feature mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds, supporting daytime maxima near 24–26°C across multiple forecasts, consistent with typical mid-October baselines for the Sichuan Basin where autumn cooling moderates summer heat. Official station data and short-range models show the peak aligning precisely with the 25°C threshold, reinforced by the absence of stronger warming patterns or cold fronts. This market-implied outcome carries high confidence given converging evidence, though minor revisions could arise from final post-processing of hourly readings or localized urban heat effects at the primary recording site. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture are expected to alter the outcome before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.