- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C or below on October 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 16?97¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 16?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on October 16?<1¢
Forecast consensus for Beijing on October 16 centers on a high near 19°C under increasing cloud cover and northeasterly flow ahead of a frontal system. Official and model guidance (GFS, ECMWF, and regional sources) shows daytime maxima constrained by overcast skies, light rain potential, and reduced insolation, with afternoon readings clustered around 17–19°C. This follows a warmer October 15 peak near 24–25°C. Market-implied odds favor 19–21°C because of typical model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing; the tight clustering of probabilities around these strikes reflects traders weighting the narrow range of plausible outcomes given current steering patterns and limited diurnal heating. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of October 15 will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.