- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?60¢
- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?53¢
- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?28¢
- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?18¢
- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?9¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
xAI’s rapid iteration on Grok models through 2026 drives trader focus on whether any version will post a verified top score of 45% or higher on Humanity’s Last Exam, the 2,500-question multimodal benchmark from the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI. Grok 4 reached 25.4% base and 44.4% with tools or multi-agent setups in 2025, while the August 2026 Grok 4.6 release sits at 42.9% on public leaderboards, trailing Claude Opus 5 (46.2%) and other frontier systems. Gains stem from expanded reasoning effort, agentic workflows, larger context windows, and tool integration rather than raw parameter scaling. With Grok 4.5 and 4.6 already emphasizing coding and long-running agents, further 2026 updates could close the gap before year-end, though benchmark saturation and verification requirements introduce uncertainty around exact thresholds.