- Will the Republican Party win the FL-28 House seat?95¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-28 House seat?5¢
Incumbent Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida’s 28th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the area’s consistent Republican tilt shown by Donald Trump’s 25-point margin there in 2024 and post-redistricting maps that favor GOP candidates. Multiple independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with limited recent polling and Giménez’s fundraising edge reinforcing trader consensus on his reelection. Phil Ehr, the Democratic nominee and retired Navy commander, has secured endorsements from former national security officials and labor groups, yet these have not shifted the underlying partisan fundamentals. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift that boosts Democratic turnout in this southwestern Miami-Dade and Monroe County district.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).