Fed rate cut by...?
- Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?1¢
- Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?5¢
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?14¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% following its July 29, 2026 meeting, citing elevated inflation above the 2% objective amid supply-side pressures and solid economic growth. Recent FOMC communications and the June dot plot reveal a divided committee, with median projections leaning toward holding or modestly tightening policy through year-end 2026 rather than easing. CME FedWatch futures reflect trader pricing consistent with limited near-term cut odds, while upcoming September 15–16 and December meetings will incorporate fresh CPI, PCE, and labor data releases that could shift the implied policy path. Market-implied probabilities continue to balance persistent price pressures against any softening in growth or employment metrics.