- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1%
- Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?3¢3%
- Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?9¢9%
- Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?28¢28%
- Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?28¢28%
- Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?49¢49%
- 0.5%December 2026 Meeting$472.1k Vol.
- 3.3%January 2027 Meeting$10.2k Vol.
- 1%9%March 2027 Meeting$7.1k Vol.
- 28.5%April 2027 Meeting$164.4 Vol.
- 3%28%June 2027 Meeting$32.3 Vol.
- 3%49%July 2027 Meeting$161.8 Vol.
Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market have shifted trader focus toward further Fed tightening rather than near-term rate cuts, with the federal funds rate held at 3.75–4% after the October FOMC meeting. October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI 0.3%, extending the streak of firm readings and pushing 12-month core PCE estimates toward 3.3%, while October nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs and unemployment edged to 4.1%. Markets now imply roughly an 80% chance of a December 8–9 hike, with some officials signaling openness to a 50 basis point move if data remain hot. Strong GDP momentum, AI-driven demand, and anchored but elevated inflation expectations reinforce the case for policy staying restrictive until clearer progress on the 2% target emerges.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2027, currently scheduled for July 27 to 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.