- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0%?<1¢<1%
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?41¢41%
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?57¢57%
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 3.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3.0% and 4.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 4.0% and 5.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 5.0% and 6.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 6.0% and 7.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be at least 7.0%?<1¢<1%
Recent quarterly data and upward forecast revisions have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion for euro area GDP in 2026. Eurostat’s October 30 flash estimate showed Q3 growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year, beating expectations, while the ECB’s latest Survey of Professional Forecasters lifted its 2026 GDP projection to 1.0%, a 0.4 percentage point upgrade. Resilience stems from investment in AI, defense, and infrastructure alongside steady consumption, even as elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions weigh on margins. With most institutional forecasts clustered between 0.9% and 1.2%, the 53.5% implied probability on the 1.0-2.0% bracket and 42.4% on 0-1.0% reflect a closely contested outcome that hinges on Q4 results and any final data revisions.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.