- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election?<1¢<1%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election by 0%-5%?4¢4%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election by 5%-10%?11¢11%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election by 10%-15%?12¢12%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election by 15%-20%?10¢10%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election by 20%-25%?20¢20%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election by 25%-30%?25¢25%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election by 30% or more?22¢22%
Incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper holds a substantial fundraising and name-recognition edge over Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race, with all major forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the Nov. 3 general election. Hickenlooper’s narrow June primary win over progressive challenger Julie Gonzales highlighted some intra-party frustration yet left him positioned to consolidate support in a state that has trended Democratic in recent cycles. Baisley’s limited campaign resources and low statewide profile have kept the race off national Republican target lists, while the absence of fresh public polling since the primary leaves trader assessments anchored in historical margins and structural fundamentals. Upcoming factors such as turnout patterns among suburban and independent voters or any late campaign developments could still adjust the final spread within the favored 20-30 point range.
Rules
The 2026 Colorado Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Colorado Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.