- Will Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?76¢76%
- Will Mely Romero Celis win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?13¢13%
- Will Griselda Martínez Martínez win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?4¢4%
- Will Joel Padilla Peña win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?4¢4%
- Will Mario Delgado Carrillo win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?3¢3%
- Will Gricelda Valencia de la Mora win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?3¢3%
- Will Gabriela Benavides Cobos win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?2¢2%
- Will Riult Rivera Gutiérrez win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?2¢2%
- Will Margarita Moreno González win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?1¢1%
- Will Viridiana Valencia Vargas win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Virgilio Mendoza Amezcua win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Sofía Peralta Ferro win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?<1¢<1%
Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera leads trader consensus at 65% because Morena nationally designated her coordinator for the defense of the Fourth Transformation in Colima, positioning her as the likely standard-bearer for the Morena-PT-PVEM alliance in the June 2027 gubernatorial election. PVEM state leaders have publicly closed ranks behind her following her record as Manzanillo mayor and federal deputy. Early October 2026 surveys place the Morena alliance at 35–42% statewide preference, ahead of fragmented opposition parties. Mely Romero Celis sits at 26% as the most prominent PRI figure mentioned in coalition talks. Virgilio Mendoza’s October resignation from PVEM leadership and his outreach to PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano for an opposition front have not yet consolidated alternative candidacies or shifted polling materially. The market reflects Morena’s structural advantage and the absence of a unified challenger more than seven months before voting.
Rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Colima on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Colima gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Colima and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Colima and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.