- Will the Central Bank of Chile decrease the monetary policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the Central Bank of Chile decrease the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the December meeting?76¢76%
- Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?18¢18%
- Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?1¢1%
The Banco Central de Chile’s unanimous October 27 hold at the 4.5% tasa de política monetaria, unchanged since December 2025, reflects a hawkish tilt amid elevated inflation risks. Annual CPI stood at 4.1% in September, driven by a roughly 25% surge in oil prices since the prior IPoM and broader energy-food pressures from geopolitical tensions, pushing market-implied odds for no December change to 55.5% while assigning 29% to a 25 basis point hike. Weak domestic activity, including a 1% annual Imacec decline in August, 9.6% unemployment, and sharply lower 2026 GDP forecasts near 0.25-0.75%, tempers aggressive tightening expectations, yet the board’s emphasis on monitoring persistent shocks supports the elevated probability of a modest hike at the December 15 meeting if near-term CPI data exceed projections.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Chile (Banco Central de Chile), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Chile, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 15, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Chile calendar (https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financiera). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Chile resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.