- Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?77¢
- Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?20¢
- Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
- Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Recent state-level polling in Rio Grande do Sul shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie with incumbent President Lula (PT) for first place in the October 4 first-round vote, with the senator at 34-40% and Lula at 28-39% across Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from mid-to-late August. This positioning reflects the state's prior support for right-wing candidates, combined with elevated disapproval of Lula's federal government (56% in one recent measure) and the consolidation of conservative voters behind the Liberal Party nominee following his July convention and father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement. Lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail significantly, consistent with their single-digit national and regional shares. Traders' strong consensus on Flávio for first place aligns with these vote-intention trends and the limited time remaining before ballots close.