- Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by at least 12%?8¢8%
- Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 9%-12%?7¢7%
- Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 6%-9%?3¢3%
- Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 3%-6%?23¢23%
- Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 0%-3%?17¢17%
- Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 0%-3%?23¢23%
- Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 3%-6%?17¢17%
- Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 6%-9%?23¢23%
- Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 9%-12%?19¢19%
- Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by at least 12%?<1¢<1%
Recent polls show the Alaska Senate contest between incumbent Dan Sullivan and challenger Mary Peltola remains exceptionally close, with Peltola holding narrow first-choice leads of 1–5 points in October surveys and simulated ranked-choice final rounds often splitting near 49–51 percent. Ranked-choice voting, combined with minor candidates on the November 3 ballot, increases the chance of small final margins after eliminations and redistributions. Cost-of-living pressures, high outside spending, and Sullivan’s Trump endorsement have kept voter sentiment divided, while late ballot counting and second-choice patterns among independents add further uncertainty to the outcome. These dynamics sustain balanced probabilities across narrow victory ranges for either candidate.
Rules
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final reported round of the specified election. The final reported round refers to the last tabulated round that features two or more candidates. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.