Gold prices have fluctuated near $4,050–$4,100 in early November 2026 after rebounding from late-October lows around $3,870, driven primarily by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy ahead of the October nonfarm payrolls release. Markets currently price roughly 70% odds of a December rate hike, with stronger-than-expected jobs data likely to reinforce that view, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields while raising gold’s opportunity cost. Recent U.S. midterm election outcomes have tempered fiscal expansion bets, contributing to softer yields and a brief rally, while central bank purchases of 321 tonnes in Q3 and ETF inflows of $2.7 billion in October provide underlying support. The October CPI release on November 10 remains the next key inflation gauge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of November 2 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.