Recent US CPI data showing hotter-than-expected October inflation has reinforced market-implied odds of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, with traders assigning near-certain probability to a 25 basis point move and some chance of 50 basis points. This contrasts with softer Canadian labor data—October employment fell and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%—which has tempered expectations for further Bank of Canada tightening after its October hike to 2.5%. Declining oil prices, down over 20% from late-October peaks, have added downside pressure on the commodity-linked CAD, pushing USD/CAD to around 1.425. Key near-term catalysts include the US PPI release and December FOMC meeting, which could widen the interest-rate differential further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/CAD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/CAD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD/CAD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-cad-chart).