- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?28¢28 %
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?10¢10 %
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?19¢19 %
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?17¢17 %
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?14¢14 %
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T?5¢5 %
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?3¢3 %
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?7¢7 %
- 28,4 %<$1TObjem 127,6 tis. $
- 9,8 %$1.0T–$1.25TObjem 87,5 tis. $
- 19,4 %$1.25T–$1.5TObjem 133,5 tis. $
- 3 %17,4 %$1.5T–$1.75TObjem 115,6 tis. $
- 14 %$1.75T–$2.0TObjem 119,5 tis. $
- 1 %5,1 %$2.0T–$2.25TObjem 5,8 tis. $
- 3,5 %$2.25T–$2.5TObjem 37,9 tis. $
- 6,7 %$2.5T+Objem 88,2 tis. $
Traders see significant uncertainty in OpenAI's IPO valuation, reflected in the dispersed market-implied probabilities with no outcome exceeding 28.3%. Recent revenue growth from enterprise AI subscriptions and API usage supports higher valuations, yet competitive pressures from rivals like Anthropic and Google, along with potential regulatory scrutiny on AI safety and data practices, cap upside expectations. Macro factors including Treasury yields and equity market volatility further influence timing and pricing multiples. Key upcoming catalysts such as any formal S-1 filing or quarterly performance updates could shift sentiment, as could broader tech IPO activity and institutional demand for high-growth digital assets.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.