- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?1¢1 %
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?5¢5 %
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?54¢54 %
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?38¢38 %
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?2¢2 %
- 1 %50+ bps decreaseObjem 7,5 tis. $
- 1 %5,4 %25 bps decreaseObjem 8,8 tis. $
- 13 %54 %No changeObjem 30,7 tis. $
- 14 %37,5 %25 bps increaseObjem 64,8 tis. $
- 1,5 %50+ bps increaseObjem 7,8 tis. $
Persistent inflation, with the September 2026 CPI rising 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month, alongside a firm labor market, underpins the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the March 2027 FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve held its 3.75–4.00% target range in late October on a 10-2 vote, with dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh emphasized accumulating more data before further action. This data-dependent stance and the September 2026 dot plot median of 4.1% for end-2027 support the 34% odds of a 25 basis point increase as the next most likely outcome. The December 2026 meeting and January 2027 data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Pravidla
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.