- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?77¢77 %
Elevated inflation and a resilient economy remain the primary drivers behind the 68% market-implied probability of another Fed rate hike in 2026. September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month to 3.7% year-over-year, with broad price pressures including energy at 20.4%, while the October FOMC statement highlighted strong growth and kept the federal funds target at 3.75-4.00% after the September increase. Two dissents favored immediate tightening, and futures markets currently assign roughly 80% odds to a December move. Trader consensus on Polymarket aggregates real-capital positioning around these data trends and the December FOMC catalyst, though incoming October CPI on November 10 and labor market readings could still shift the final assessment before year-end.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.