- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?4¢4 %
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?74¢74 %
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?19¢19 %
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?<1¢<1 %
- 0,8 %50+ bps decreaseObjem 204,3 tis. $
- 3 %4 %25 bps decreaseObjem 186,7 tis. $
- 73,5 %No changeObjem 324 tis. $
- 5 %18,5 %25 bps increaseObjem 421,3 tis. $
- 0,9 %50+ bps increaseObjem 128,2 tis. $
Trader consensus for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting stands at 73.5% implied probability, driven primarily by expectations that October’s hold and incoming data will keep policy steady at the 3.75-4.00% federal funds target range. Persistent but moderating inflation—September CPI at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 2.6%—combined with a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) supports the view that further tightening can pause after any December move. The Fed’s data-dependent approach, highlighted in Chair Warsh’s post-October comments emphasizing price stability without strong forward guidance, reinforces this positioning. November CPI and employment reports due before year-end, plus the December SEP, remain key swing factors that could shift odds if they show renewed upside risks to inflation or sharper labor cooling.
Pravidla
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.